Reflections on COP26, A Month Later
Just over a month ago was the closing plenary of COP26. As I watched the gavel come down from my phone in an Edinburgh bar, I already felt far from the event, though I was less than a day and 80 km from the crowded intensity of the Blue Zone.
That feeling has continued since. COP26 was a whirlwind experience. It came and went. And what was always going to matter most about COP26 is the thereafter: what it means and what it does beyond Glasgow.
In conversations since returning, people have wondered how I think it went. The question is usually posed with a guarded tone that I hear as: was it a disappointment like many say?
The answer, I think, is not as simple as ‘yes’ or ‘no,’ it was historic yet insufficient, it took us a big step closer, etc. etc. etc. but, in local terms: yeah no yeah.
“I’m sorry, but unfortunately, the answer is yes”
I’m being a bit facetious; COP26 itself could be a disappointment without being a total failure or an excuse to stop acting. But for my more thorough answer, read on.
In an earlier survey on what kind of COP26 content you were most interested in reading from me, most of you indicated “longer thought pieces and synthesis (more ruminating, less moving).” So, though I won’t be writing directly about the UN Climate Conference for much longer, I want to share some of the longer reflections and syntheses I’ve written over the last month in case they are still of interest.
(And if you’re sick of my writing voice, totally fair; I am too! Scroll on past.)
Recent writing
In order by date:
Was the Climate Change Conference in Glasgow a Success? (Holland Sentinel): written with Rich Killmer (a true COP veteran) for a local paper and submitted before the agreement was finalized.
After COP26, We Need Radical Faith, Hope, and Love (Do Justice blog): a shorter piece for socially-engaged Christian readers. (A follow-up to this one.)
5 Paradoxes of COP26—And Possibilities for the Climate Movement (Michigan Climate Action Network blog): for climate advocates in Michigan, hosted by an advocacy group that connects them. (Check our MiCAN for action campaigns.)
Did COP26 Have Spiritual Implications? Yes, Says One Attendee. (Better Samaritan blog): a blog of Christianity Today hosted this piece, a follow up to this pre-COP piece, pt.1 and pt. 2.
I’m glad to engage more on any of the issues raised in these; just reply by email.
More Thoughts: What I’m Watching After COP26
Bear with me, but someone reached out to ask me what to watch politically after COP26—unsuspecting that I was about to go eager beaver on that question (oops!).
I could be wrong, but here are a few rough themes on what to watch in climate politics after the COP:
How will climate politics play out on other levels than the international/multilateral? The annual COP is a grand stage and a sort of theater (literally, see below) for the state of global climate politics. It is important both as an indicator and as a driver of action. But change is happening all the time in countries, cities, businesses, and neighborhoods, quite apart from the big pledges and agreements of the COP. So while the COP is a vital venue for countries to coordinate, and we need it, it doesn’t tell the whole story on all that is being done.
How will the fossil fuel industry fare in the court of public opinion/culture, markets, and politics? COP26’s final agreement stopped short of calling for the rapid phaseout of coal and other fossil fuels, but that’s only because of a handful of countries’ (and the industry’s) interventions. This was a matter of politics, not science: there is overwhelming scientific evidence that to keep the planet relatively safe for humans, we need to rapidly transition away from them; already, through air pollution, they are killing upwards of 8 million people a year). Even naming fossil fuels in the text was a political signal. Fossil fuels have long been a powerful and corrosive force in politics, especially but not only in the U.S. How soon until they fully lose their grip? This will be a main challenge to decarbonizing our energy system, and indeed, to addressing climate change overall.
Will climate reach a “social tipping point”? Popular polling is on the side of climate action, but many people don’t rank climate change among their top concerns. Many still think of it as something that only affects the future, or other people, not their daily lives or their own futures—but this seems to be changing. Will enough of the U.S. public (~25%?) engage enough to make climate action a bipartisan necessity for all elected officials? We are truly not as divided as we think we are on climate, but we need more people to be politically engaged on the issue. And to have a functioning democracy, ope.
How will countries, including the U.S., reckon with the fact that there are victims of the climate crisis and there are those who bear responsibility for it? In Glasgow, many low-lying and least developed nations’ calls for Loss and Damage funding from rich nations were sidelined by a few rich countries (including the U.S.) who worry this would open them up to future litigation. A big political question going forward (even if it is ignored or resisted) will be: who is owed what by whom? The call for climate justice from the Global South will not be going away anytime soon.
Will the U.S. work ambitiously to draw down emissions, or shift toward merely coping with the consequences? As more extreme weather events land (and they will for a while at least, regardless of what we do now), and as more dire reports come out, and there are political setbacks, there may be proposals to move our eggs into the adaptation (prepare for the worst) basket rather than the mitigation (prevent all the harm we can) basket. This already started in conversations at COP26. Of course, to protect people, we need lots of eggs into both baskets at once, and it is not too late to stop doing damage and begin to reverse the damage already done. But what story will be told? Toward what end will politics be aimed?
Most timely: in the U.S., will the Build Back Better Act pass the Senate in the next few days/weeks (and what climate provisions will remain in it)? The Build Back Better bill proposes to invest significantly in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Not having this bill passed—and what this says about the state of U.S. climate politics—hurt the U.S.’s ability to negotiate at COP26. It has already been through a round of severe funding cuts and is nowhere close to being adequate, given the scale of the crisis. But again, it could send powerful signals and large ripple effects around the world.
There is a lot more to watch, but these are the ones I’m most interested to follow.
Beyond My Takes
Beyond my takes, here is some food for thought in the COP-aftermath:
Climate Change’s Effects on 193 Countries | The New York Times: powerful interactive on how climate change is already affecting the world’s nations.
‘Declaration of war’: Pacific islands blast COP26 pledges | Al Jazeera: as the dust settles on COP26, where does that leave most vulnerable nations?
COP26, global emissions gaps, and extreme weather disasters: These are the top climate change stories of 2021. | The Washington Post: this quick read situates COP26 within U.S. and global climate stories of the year.
How should I pray for the climate? | The Christian Century: Liuan Huska, a gifted writer and friend, on the tensions of being a praying person these days.
Still Processing
As you can probably tell, a month after COP26, I’m still processing it.
I’m processing what happened a little but more so, what it means. This will be ongoing, and some of my above thoughts on that will, I’m sure, prove to be incomplete or inaccurate in some way. That’s inevitable.
But I’m trying to process actively. My goal is not to merely move on—as so much news coverage has—but move forward, better equipped to use what I’ve learned to contribute meaningfully to solutions. Understanding what happened can and ought to inform action. To that end, my next post (and probably my last for a while) will be in the vein of the other kind of writing y’all said you were most interested in reading about COP26: “but what can I DO?”
For today, thanks for reading.