So It Begins: Notes on COP26 So Far
I leave for COP26 today. My next post will be from Glasgow.
Earlier I shared about what COP26 is and what I’ll be doing there. For now, here are some quick, non-exhaustive, not comprehensive takeaways from the first few days (with some tweets and a podcast along the way).
First, the Big Picture
Here’s the scientific backdrop to this whole conference: What’s the Big Deal with A Few Degrees? Why do degrees even matter? This video from Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist who happens to also be a conservative Christian is worth a view if you’re curious or cautious about this whole climate change thing, or unsure why limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (and/or as much as possible!) matters so much.
On the question of, “haven’t ‘we’ reduced emissions?” see this New York Times breakdown: “Yes, There Has Been Progress on Climate. No, It’s Not Nearly Enough.” From a visual, big-picture-trends standpoint, this is a top resource. The title sums it up well: there are some real reasons to claim progress—the advances and price drop in solar and wind, the waning of coal, and some real effects of the Paris Agreement. But emissions are still rising. And they need to start dropping, hard and fast. Without rapid action, we are predicted to see a 2.4°C temp increase, which would be the end of low-lying island and coastal nations, and the death of millions of people a year (not shown on slick interactive articles and charts).
Spoken and Unspoken
The first three days of COP26 featured big speeches and a few big announcements.
Two speeches from the opening round stand out for making plain what and who is at stake:
Eliizabeth Wathuti, a youth climate activist from Kenya: “The decisions you make here will help determine whether the rains will return to our land.” (Full video below.)
Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley Q.C. also brought a powerful address, worth viewing in full: "1.5°C is what we need to survive, 2°C, is a death sentence." (Full video below.)
There is a strong tradition of leaders from developing countries pushing the conversation at the COPs. This episode of the ever-excellent How to Save a Planet gives an overview of the role that leaders of small island nations and developing countries have played in increasing the level of ambition—giving their nations’ futures a chance. This is one episode on the conference I really recommend, especially if you are skeptical that it contributes to change (and especially if you like geopolitics!).
The heads of state will be mostly gone by the end of today but the negotiators will remain. The hard part now begins: negotiating funding. I am not up to speed on climate finance, but here’s a quick summary: it’s thorny, $100bn/year was promised to vulnerable nations, the rich nations haven’t delivered as promised, and Indigenous land stewards want funding allocated specifically to them, who are the stewards of biodiversity and carbon sinks and also on the frontlines of climate impacts. I will learn more about this aspect of the talks on the ground.
As the COP continues, it is becoming clear that civil society has less access to the rooms where it happens than in the past, and many activists from developing countries aren’t there because of vaccine access and travel and lodging costs. And their absence is noticeable compared to past COPs.
Not good. Civil society presence is important (I am going to COP26 with a civil society badge). It reminds leaders that there is incredibly strong public will for them to act, as outlined: “COP26: polling is overwhelming – people want leaders to act”)
Some of the troubling logistical issues plaguing the COP so far—and why they matter—are laid out by youth activist Alexandria Villaseñor:
President Biden also spoke in the opening round of speeches. You can see the speeches and read the commentary elsewhere.
Here is one response to it:
(File this one under: “theology x climate, discuss over pints.” But here’s my opening shot: mind the avatar.)
Okay, on the speeches and announcements from the first few days, here are some of note: the Global Methane Pledge (with its growing list of countries on board) seems like a good step to cut dangerous methane methane emissions. So does pledging to end deforestation (some are saying this is one of the best things to happen yet this COP). And so does the pledge for hundreds of banks and pension funds to invest their assets to limit greenhouse gas emissions (though, notably, they don’t address a certain elephant…keep reading). You’ll notice that the key word in all three of these is “pledge”—which gets fanfare but is not the same as results.
Through yesterday, the elephant in the room was the main driver of climate change and barrier to climate action—fossil fuels—and whether governments would make actual plans to transition to cleaner forms of energy. Fossil fuel companies aren’t formally invited to the COP this year (for the first time ever...somehow), but their influence is still there.
But today at COP26 was a historic announcement: 20 countries—including the UK, US, and Canada—have agreed to end international direct public finance in fossil fuels by 2022 and shift the billions to clean energy.
Of course, what governments lend is small compared to what banks lend to the industry. And industry lobbyists and their senators will do what they’ve done in the past and try to keep anything from changing on home soil. But a growing majority of the U.S. public is connecting the dots between burning fossil fuels and an overheating planet, dots which science shows are clearly connected. So this may spur some real momentum.
This finance agreement is, yet again, a promise. And on climate, many promises have been broken. Still, this signals possibilities for systems-level change that haven’t been so widely visible before.
More Coverage
Okay, to wrap this up: there are a lot of takes on COP26. And attention to it matters. But the true outcomes won’t be known until later. This to say, I’m trying to not get too swayed by early takes on the legacy of COP26 and how screwed/saved we might be as a result.
If you happen to want more in-depth coverage from COP26, here are some big outlets who are on it:
NYT Live Updates (one can take issue with the NYT, but it’s tough to beat their event coverage)
The Guardian (has been reliable on climate journalism; if you are used to reading about the issue through the lens of stilted U.S. climate politics, a UK take may be eye-opening)
Bloomberg Green (dropped its paywall for COP26; solid in general if you’re looking for business coverage)
Finally, I wrote a blog post on Christianity Today’s The Better Samaritan blog for a Christian audience about what’s at stake at COP26. It’s posted in two parts: part one is here, part two is here.
Thanks for reading.
Further engagement:
CCOP21 Newsletter: sign up if you want daily stories from the cohort of Christian climate observers with whom I’ll be in Scotland.
Climate Vigil: a global vigil and virtual concert this Saturday, if you want to be in a certain kind of Christian space, with music, during these uncertain days. The people organizing this are legit. (I and my new buddies will be joining from Glasgow.)